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Course: Demand Forecasting System Development

Duration: 2 days; registration at 8:00 AM day one, class begins at 8:30 AM; class ends at 4:00 PM final day.

Overview: Ideally, while supply systems would respond only to actual demand, typical lead times and the need to establish long-range purchasing and operations plans still require a demand forecast. This class provides systematic methods to identify demand drivers, maintain and cleanse relevant demand history, evaluate multiple forecast techniques, establish operational creation and signoff procedures, and implementation steps in devising forecasting systems for a single facility or across the entire demand chain. It stresses the role of the forecast process in supporting business goals, and in driving manufacturing and distribution planning.

Who should attend: Supply chain managers, materials managers, marketing managers, procurement/planning managers

Agenda:

Working with demand history

• Qualifying demand history: bookings vs. actual sales, returns, pricing programs, product replacement, channel changes, other

• Maintaining year-to-year consistent baseline data

• Filtering demand history for forecast use vs. historical sales records

• Identifying demand drivers

Identifying demand patterns and forecast techniques

• Even, intermittent, lumpy demand; recent changes in demand patterns, long and short-term trend and seasonality

• Extrinsic vs. intrinsic factors

• Quantitative vs. qualitative techniques

• Regression, time series, best fit and other models:
  - Averaging models (simple, moving, weighted)
  - Exponential smoothing models: trend and seasonality
  - Croston, ARIMA, Focus forecasting, other

• Simulation

• Tradeoffs of simplicity vs. accuracy

• Forecasting demand for new products

• Forecasting for short product life cycles

• Emphasizing the process instead of specific models

• Class development of actual forecasts from sample demand data

Operational and implementation considerations

• Who forecasts: sales/marketing or operations

• By item, family, customer, channel, geographic area

• Using POS data

• Single facility vs. collaborative planning, forecasting and replenishment (CPFR)

• Supporting S&OP and other higher-levels plans; units vs. dollars

• Using bias, MAD, RMSE, tracking signal and other accuracy measures; effects of forecast error on lead times, inventory and customer service levels

• Quantifying the impacts from forecast inaccuracy

• Changing future forecasts based on past recent actual demand

• Monthly/other creation, review, signoff cycle

• Rolling out new forecast systems across the demand chain

Each area includes: Typical policy issues, glossary, exercise or quiz.

Fee: $925 US for 2 days; $775 per person when 2 or more attend from same company. Includes materials and handouts, continental breakfast, lunch and coffee service but not dinner, lodging or transportation.

Registration options:                    registration form

• Call (770) 649-7852 to register and pay by credit card

• Print and mail the registration form with check (US funds only) or credit card information to:

Bridgefield Group Inc.
Attn: Registration
270 Lakeview Ridge East
Roswell, GA 30076

• Print and fax the registration form with credit card payment information to (770) 649-7853

For additional information or questions contact:

education@bridgefieldgroup.com